Final Report: FA2386-11-1-4019 114019 Understanding and Managing Causality of Change in Socio-Technical Systems III
نویسندگان
چکیده
Understanding and managing for change is a central concern of design, commerce and societies. Well‐intended interventions often lead to unexpected outcomes with significant implications for health, safety, security and prosperity. While considerable intellectual investment has been directed at quantitative and statistical approaches to understanding causality of socio‐cultural system change, the complexity and indeterminate nature of underlying states and often nonlinear dynamics poses significant, if not, intractable measurement, computational, and interpretation challenges. As a result, a scalable and functional understanding of underlying causal dynamics of socio‐cultural systems that can inform real‐world interventions leading to desired outcomes remains elusive. What is needed in order to close the gaps resulting from the limitations of current approaches? In particular, what can be learned about underlying causal dynamics from case‐based successes and failures? What are the fundamental constraints and best options for coupling multiple approaches and methodologies to “capture” real world scope, scale and complexity of dynamic events? What are the R&D options likely to push the states‐ of‐the‐art of understanding, prediction and intervention in terms of both control and design or re‐design? This research effort developed an informed perspective on the problem of understanding and managing causality of change in socio‐technical systems. It leveraged interactions with a broad multi‐disciplinary community of recognized thought leaders and identified, developed and rationalized specific science project objectives for causality and complex intervention research that broadens the research base in support of US national defense.
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